The Russian sanctions before (the ones in 2014) really blew back on Europe. At that stage I think your hypothesis would probably be right. At this stage European relations with the US have cooled quite substantially. One example is the German intelligence agencies telling the American intelligence agencies that they do not need any help intelligence-wise with their elections recently. This is not something that would have been considered a decade ago.
While I do think Europe is the weakest link in the global economy (overall hypothesis correct) a lot has to do with systemic fragilities within their own borders on the socio-economic front. If Europe goes, the US might be applying some leverage, but they would not be able to throw them under the bus if things were in a strong, or even a stable position. If the EU starts to unravel, which I see starting in Q4 2017 and accelerating into next year (possibly) it will be on account of their overall weak position in terms of economics and a lack of social cohesion.
Also, I have to say, no one in their right mind would configure the Euro the way it is currently configured without expecting it to shake apart. The gold standard in the inter-war period was configured in a similar away and it fell apart under the same sort of pressures that the Euro is facing currently. Germany has found tremendous advantage in the system being configured as such, but it is innately unstable. I wonder if they have a plan in place already on the other side of things. It seems quite likely, but whether they can enact it with various other problems like immigration, remains to be seen. If they have no plan then it will be a very hard landing for them indeed.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 08/03/2017 12:20PM by istirith.