Quote

Re: First of all, I read Marvel.

Well, fuck you. Now to the less important matters.

Quote
wrathpuppet
Secondly, you know what I mean.

That is a wrong assumption, we live in different information context.

Quote

To clarify: Do you think Assad has used chemical weapons against his people in the past? Recently?

See above about the fake news. Use of chemical weapons is not about faith or thinking, it's about knowledge and data. What data do we have on alleged use of chemical weapons? Here is the most recent press-release for the OPCW, the body responsible for establishing the facts - [www.opcw.org] . Long story short - so far there is no data. So there's nothing to discuss. You can browse the OPCW news to the past, there are two important reports with regard to Syrian chemical weapons - 1) Syrian chemical disarmament is complete, 2) most probably, it is IS who have used chem weapons in Syria. Other than that - no data.

Quote

If so, do you think that justifies a strike against his weapons facilities?

See above, absense of data justifies nothing. But as I said already, you guys don't really give a fuck about chem weapons or shit, this wasn't about Syria or Assad or chem weapons. This is about Russia and Iran undermining the US monopoly on providing international security (the main source of US wealth). So the purpose of this attack is to demonstrate the American leadership internationally and unite the "allies" under the lack of data. Because it's easy to be united when truth is established, but it takes true allies to stand united under a banner of bullshit. UK and France - checkbox marked.

Quote

Also, when you say “military takedown” of the US, are you referring to an invasion or a military coup? Or even secession?

I mean Northeast, Florida and South California megalopolises turning into radioactive ashes, wiping out roughly 30% of U.S. population and 50% of its industry.

Quote

Finally, what do you see as the *most* likely scenario that leads to nukes in the air, provided neither Putin nor Trump are affected by the lag bug?

These scenarios are outlined in combination of US and Russian national security strategies.

American strategy of national defense ( [www.whitehouse.gov] ):

Four American national interests:
1) to protect the American people, the homeland, and the American way of life
2) promote American prosperity
3) preserve peace through strength
4) advance American influence

Now going to the threats:

Russia aims to weaken U.S. influence in the world and divide us from our allies and partners. Russia views the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and European Union (EU) as threats. Russia is investing in new military capabilities, including nuclear systems that remain the most significant existential threat to the United States, and in destabilizing cyber capabilities. Through modernized forms of subversive tactics, Russia interferes in the domestic political a airs of countries around the world. The combination of Russian ambition and growing military capabilities creates an unstable frontier in Eurasia, where the risk of conflict due to Russian miscalculation is growing.

Although the menace of Soviet communism is gone, new threats test our will. Russia is using subversive measures to weaken the credibility of America’s commitment to Europe, undermine transatlantic unity, and weaken European institutions and governments. With its invasions of Georgia and Ukraine, Russia demonstrated its willingness to violate the sovereignty of states in the region. Russia continues to intimidate its neighbors with threatening behavior, such as nuclear posturing and the forward deployment of offensive capabilities.


Now for the thresholds to use nuclear weapons - US Military strategy: ( [www.jcs.mil] )

The U.S. military deters aggression by maintaining a credible nuclear capability that is safe, secure, and effective; conducting forward engagement and operations; and maintaining Active, National Guard, and Reserve forces prepared to deploy and conduct operations of sufficient scale and duration to accomplish their missions. Forward deployed, rotational, and globally responsive forces regularly demonstrate the capability and will to act. Should deterrence fail to prevent aggression, the U.S. military stands ready to project power to deny an adversary’s objectives and decisively defeat any actor that threatens the U.S. homeland, our national interests, or our allies and partners.

Combining the two documents, we can see that US is officially willing to use nuclear weapons to protect American way of life, promote American prosperity, preserve peace through strength, and advance American influence, a.k.a. whenever it feels like using nukes, and Russia being its main existential threat. Let's leave it at that.


Now for the Russian strategic documents - the military doctrine ( [doc.mil.ru] )

Russian Federation reserves the right to use the nuclear arms in response to the use against it or/and its allies of nuclear arms or other weapons of mass destruction, and in case of aggression against Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is at stake.


Combining the two - clearly offensive US doctrine and clearly defensive Russian doctrine - I can clearly see the nuclear escalation scenario, be it lag bug or not.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/15/2018 01:32PM by Kstatida.