Quote
Istirith
Firstly, what outlets are there to follow the US elections? I saw snippets of the CNN (i think?) televised republican debate on youtube posted about a while ago. I've had a look at Ron Paul, various websites and so on.

I'm not sure how you could get footage of the debates. Pollingreport.com is useful for tracking poll results (for many things, not just the 2008 election). Political futures markets are "sort of" useful when making a determination of who's really in the lead. Intrade.com has one, also betfair.co.uk.

Quote
Istirith
Secondly, in this early stage of the elections, who would you like to win?

Probably Ron Paul. I'm not especially enamored of the rest of the candidates. If forced to choose I'd probably go with McCain or Huckabee. The latter mainly for his support of the FairTax.

Quote
Istirith
Thirdly, who do you think will win and why?

I'm thinking Obama or Clinton. Clinton has the big money backing, but Obama is more popular with independents and polls better against the possible Republican nominees. It's kind a crap shoot though.

Quote
Istirith
Does anyone believe that Obama or Clinton realistically have a chance given their obvious disadvantages, one being of African-American heritage and the other being female?

I'm not entirely sure those are disadvantages. Sure, there are some people who'll avoid them for those reasons. But there are others who might not have voted for a white male candidate who *will* go out and vote for a black or female candidate. I think this favors Obama more than Clinton. Black voters, as a group, have a lower rate of turnout, so there would seem to be a lot more votes to be won. Then again, there are a lot fewer black voters than there are women voters. This is just a guess, but I'd say the sense of "community" among African Americans is stronger than among "women" as a group. I'm not sure how many women who are "undecided" (between the two parties) are going to run out and vote for Clinton just because she's a female. Another thing to look at is overlap. The sort of person who would refuse to vote for Obama because he's black would probably also refuse to vote for Clinton because she's a woman. However, there are some people who could accept a black president who still wouldn't vote for a woman.

Quote
Istirith
Realistically does anyone think Clinton if put forward as the Democrat candidate will survive the baggage and fallout left over from Bill's presidency?

She wasn't to blame. If anything, she came out of that looking like a martyr.