Re: being bullish on China

August 26, 2017 01:39AM
They're dependent on western economies to _buy_ the stuff they make (more on that later, re: political stability being tied to their exports). They're dependent on some western countries for natural resources and raw materials. If shit hits the fan, you want to be the producer not the consumer.

Take a look at this: []

You'll see that the biggest chunks of their trade exports are relatively-high-tech products (much to do with computing and telecommunications). Their technological level exceeds what you'd expect of a country with such a low GDP per capita.

For reference, I think many people will not doubt that Russia is a country which has much more "actual power" than its economic statistics indicate. This is not only due to its nuclear weapons, but also due to its strong technological standing in particular industries (e.g.: space, rocketry, military vehicles and planes and weapons). China is a bit like that, to a lesser degree. It makes cheap crappy stuff, but it is also capable of making things which put it in an exclusive club of powerful high-tech countries.

I'm a subscriber to the Association of Computing Machinery's newsletter, and every week there will be headlines about new computing developments researched in China. If you include research done by the hordes of Chinese PhDs/postdocs in overseas universities, it gets more extreme. They're making huge strides in the information technology front, and this is the Information Age. To see how IT crosses sectoral borders into other areas, here are examples: (, (

What do they have?

(1) Hell of a lot of people, who are reasonably educated, and very hardworking.
(2) Crappy political governance and institutions: their elites are often extractive and exploit people and then ship their money out to the US or other western countries.
(3) Middling technology in most areas, but high technology in some (IT, telecoms, rocketry, infrastructure).
(4) A massive manufacturing base, covering large swathes of the global supply chain. Global trade of manufactured products would grind to a halt if Chinese factories disappeared overnight. Much of this is concentrated in low-tech crappy stuff, but there exists a significant presence in crucial links in the supply chain which are not easily replaced.
(5) Disproportionately (compared to GDP/capita) strong education system and infrastructure.
(6) Strong political unity amongst its people, who are willing to put aside their differences for continued economic development for now.
(7) Severe environmental degradation in parts of the country. Note that many industrialized countries went through this phase as well, including the USA, Japan, UK.

They also have very severe weaknesses:

(a) Political system still under development, and subject to big changes as they move through the developmental ladder. It's not inconceivable for their progress to be wiped out by a political revolution. The thing is, the people are aware of this, and I think most people know that their government (CCP) is often corrupt and quite bad in many ways, but they put up with it in the name of continued development. If the growth continues, the politics remain stable. But the growth may not continue, as China approaches middle or mid-high income levels. Then the government needs to fix issues like corruption, environmental degradation.

The current President Xi Jinping is making material steps towards this. It could potentially all be ruined if he picks a bad successor and fails to exert his influence from behind the scenes after he steps down. I think of Xi as somewhat similar to Putin: canny politicians and authoritarian leaders who are acting in their countries' best interests. Interesting note: he has quite fond personal feelings towards the US and its people, check out the wikileaks cable sent by US intelligence on Xi Jinping ( If you read this you will know why the CCP has picked the correct guy to lead it for now.

(b) They need to import massive amounts of energy and raw materials through sea lanes presently guaranteed by US security. China has benefited greatly from the US system of maritime world trade and security guarantees. The nuclear umbrella covering Japan preventing potential militarization in Japan is one example. But they're fearful that the US will get jealous of a rising challenger, so they want to secure the South China Sea trade routes themselves, with their own domestic navy. Hence first they must secure Taiwan as the "unsinkable aircraft carrier", and they must get the first island chain secured. Additionally, they are doing One Belt One Road to boost overland trade in the Eurasian continental bloc.

(c) Demographics. Population is too large for its natural resources / size of usable land at present. This trend is being reversed largely due to the One Child policy. Now the One Child policy has been slowly rolled-back: most new couples nowadays can have two. Ageing population: this is a huge issue. It could wind up like Japan if it cannot make enough young people (or successfully integrate young immigrants, which I strongly doubt).

Greatest threats to Chinese development:

(1) Political corruption / betrayal by elites.

(2) Demographics (ageing population being a burden on the working young).

(3) Taiwanese independence or some other severe challenge to their control over the sea lanes they depend on.

(4) Disaffection against a non-representative elite-rule government with significant corruption leading to social instability. This is less likely to happen if they fix the corruption problem. I guess you could do psych-ops to influence people to hate their government, but that's precisely why their internet tech is isolated from the global US-mediated internet tech. Google/Facebook can strongly swing politics, but most Chinese can't/don't use Google/Facebook.
Subject Author Posted

As a side note

Kstatida August 15, 2017 12:48AM

How has no one commented on hilarious this video is?

Stevers August 17, 2017 08:07PM

Ukraine started in 2013 with Lenin's statues toppling

Kstatida August 18, 2017 02:01AM

It hasn't ended yet you commie bastard.

Rhyaldrin August 25, 2017 01:23AM

Jews don't gank

Kstatida August 25, 2017 01:57AM

You've said before there is no such thing as Ukraine.

Frosty August 18, 2017 03:02AM

I'll take it with a grain of salt (n/t)

Kstatida August 18, 2017 03:08AM

Southern Poverty Law Center credits the removal of the Confederate flag from the capitol of SC to the re-emergence of the KKK

PaulO August 17, 2017 10:37AM

Not following this thread, but just FYI, I wouldn't trust a single word coming from the SPLC. (n/t)

saagkri August 17, 2017 12:22PM

And why not? (n/t)

alansmithee August 17, 2017 12:43PM

D. James Kennedy Ministries Sues SPLC over Hate Map

PaulO August 25, 2017 05:37AM roup-map-lists-mainstream-conservative-organ/

PaulO August 22, 2017 03:14AM

They're crooked race pimps who try to paint a variety of conservative movements as "racist".

Rhyaldrin August 17, 2017 02:22PM

One of the reasons I'm a huge fan of Steve Bannon

Kstatida August 18, 2017 02:11AM

I agree with pretty much everything Bannon says in that article. (n/t)

PaulO August 18, 2017 03:47AM

Smart guy, no doubt. I offer a point of disagreement and some proposed solutions

starbright August 24, 2017 12:32AM

Really interesting take.

Jib August 25, 2017 11:36AM

Re: Really interesting take.

sleepy August 26, 2017 10:27PM

In what sense? nt

istirith August 27, 2017 12:47PM

Re: In what sense? nt

sleepy August 28, 2017 07:46PM

Fair enough.. But one thing that needs to be put to rest is...

istirith August 29, 2017 09:10AM

Yes, I think this is good

starbright August 29, 2017 10:05AM

The whole "White trash America voted in Trump hyuk hyuk"

istirith August 29, 2017 11:40AM

I am convinced that there is broad agreement on really important issues

starbright August 29, 2017 11:55PM

Essentially.. "'Wealth of Nations' the post"..

istirith August 30, 2017 06:46AM

You can't do anything about lobbyists, those with wealth and power will always try to influence government

Kstatida August 30, 2017 12:59AM

Perfect point

Kstatida August 29, 2017 09:29AM

Maybe you are familiar but one Russian Oligarch..

istirith August 29, 2017 12:01PM

I can tell you a hundred of similar stories

Kstatida August 29, 2017 12:05PM

We want to hear them! MORE BLOOD! MORE BLOOD! MORE BLOOD! (n/t)

starbright August 29, 2017 11:56PM

Re: We want to hear them! MORE BLOOD! MORE BLOOD! MORE BLOOD!

Kstatida August 30, 2017 01:57AM

Wikipedia doesn't mention the corpses :-( (n/t)

starbright August 30, 2017 10:07AM

Oh it never does

Kstatida August 30, 2017 11:27AM

Sorry, I realize my argument may be tailored to someone with my specific experiences. I explain more:

starbright August 25, 2017 02:03PM

Well said (n/t)

Quas August 25, 2017 09:42PM

Re: Sorry, I realize my argument may be tailored to someone with my specific experiences. I explain more:

istirith August 25, 2017 09:25PM

Sounds plausible, and this is a relative strength of the US: its relatively less-bad ability to attract talent of any culture/colour

starbright August 26, 2017 12:34AM

I say it doesn't happen

Kstatida August 26, 2017 12:39AM

Re: Sorry, I realize my argument may be tailored to someone with my specific experiences. I explain more:

Kstatida August 26, 2017 12:06AM

No worries, having to explain more your assumptions makes for better discussion.

Jib August 25, 2017 03:17PM

Re: being bullish on China

starbright August 26, 2017 01:39AM

I would estimate most of this as correct analysis

Kstatida August 26, 2017 03:16AM

What's your view on Xi's political changes? I hear some grumblings from Chinese friends about the increased authoritarianism (n/t)

starbright August 26, 2017 04:48AM

I'm not an expert on chinese politics, but this here sounds like major political shift

Kstatida August 26, 2017 05:45AM

Damn, I had no clue.

MiyagiYojimbo August 26, 2017 09:59AM

Holy shit!

Kstatida August 26, 2017 10:21AM

Re: Damn, I had no clue.

istirith August 26, 2017 10:12AM

I'm already starting to see the affects of this in America.

MiyagiYojimbo August 26, 2017 10:32AM

Every time I see the first part of this, I'm reminded of how much they honor the dead. (n/t)

MiyagiYojimbo August 26, 2017 10:25AM

Some quick clarifications

PaulO August 24, 2017 03:42AM

We're mostly in agreement here, just two points

starbright August 24, 2017 03:57AM

Re: We're mostly in agreement here, just two points

PaulO August 24, 2017 05:39AM

Yeah, I don't disagree.

starbright August 24, 2017 09:14AM


Kstatida August 24, 2017 03:06AM

Thanks: addressing your points here

starbright August 24, 2017 03:51AM

I see where you're coming from. Re: management.

Jib August 25, 2017 08:23PM

I don't think he expects anything: he's just rationally selecting the choice which works out better for him

starbright August 26, 2017 12:41AM

Re: I see where you're coming from. Re: management.

istirith August 25, 2017 09:17PM

We're in agreement here

Kstatida August 24, 2017 04:24AM

Heh, I can totally empathize

starbright August 24, 2017 05:02AM

Also regarding human capital

Kstatida August 24, 2017 03:42AM

Yeah, bring the real productive jobs back. Production makes strong men/women (n/t)

starbright August 24, 2017 05:08AM

One other factor..

istirith August 24, 2017 03:47AM


Kstatida August 24, 2017 03:56AM

Actually, ironically..

istirith August 24, 2017 03:59AM

Re: Actually, ironically..

PaulO August 24, 2017 04:14PM

We'll be in recession in less than 5 years.

istirith August 24, 2017 09:15PM

Correct me if I'm wrong

Kstatida August 24, 2017 11:51PM

Under normal circumstances this would be correct..

istirith August 25, 2017 09:46AM

Sounds like good basis for deflation scenery to me

Kstatida August 25, 2017 11:06AM


istirith August 25, 2017 11:52AM

Lol check this out

Kstatida August 26, 2017 12:20PM

I don't think people are going to click your links much at all anymore. n/t

Frosty August 26, 2017 01:38PM

Not my problem you don't speak Chinese, fella

Kstatida August 26, 2017 10:12PM

I'd love to claim to be fully fluent, but I can't :-p It's a hard language even for natives, much less as a second language (n/t)

starbright August 26, 2017 11:39PM


Kstatida August 27, 2017 12:55AM

Ah no worries: I should go and read it in Chinese, polish the rusty language skills a bit! (n/t)

starbright August 27, 2017 01:23AM

I'm done expecting anything from you. (n/t)

Frosty August 26, 2017 10:29PM

You break my heart

Kstatida August 26, 2017 10:46PM

Re: You break my heart

MiyagiYojimbo August 26, 2017 11:28PM

GD right. Cold as ice, and willing to sacrifice your love. (n/t)

Frosty August 27, 2017 04:27AM

Do you think people click your links?

Matrik August 26, 2017 04:53PM

Don't know, don't care. Explination inside.

Frosty August 26, 2017 08:17PM

Walking on shaky ground here b/c I'm not quite an expert

Kstatida August 24, 2017 04:11AM


istirith August 24, 2017 04:18AM

Considering Quantitative Easening and major USD reserves of China/Japan

Kstatida August 24, 2017 04:34AM

Also U.S. treasuries international demand

Kstatida August 24, 2017 04:50AM

The SNB is a major investor in US Equities.

istirith August 24, 2017 10:54AM

Norway is interesting

Kstatida August 24, 2017 12:14PM

Have to say though..

istirith August 24, 2017 03:33AM

Most likely

Kstatida August 24, 2017 03:47AM

If you are talking about trade flows..

istirith August 24, 2017 03:54AM

You only forgot a built in nationalist caste where military service makes you a full citizen (n/t)

demos August 24, 2017 02:38AM

The dude is smart, like real smart

Kstatida August 18, 2017 04:14AM


Kstatida August 18, 2017 10:14AM

Goodnight sweet prince..

istirith August 18, 2017 10:34AM

I'm literally shaking. (n/t)

Rhyaldrin August 18, 2017 12:57PM

A king is made by his retinue

Kstatida August 18, 2017 10:57AM

I could be wrong..

istirith August 18, 2017 11:10AM

As another side note

Kstatida August 22, 2017 03:35AM

that was the whole point of him leaving

jalim August 22, 2017 03:40AM

Oh right

Kstatida August 22, 2017 05:50AM

Holy Molly

Kstatida August 18, 2017 11:57AM

Yeah, me too. Take it with a huge grain of salt. (n/t)

PaulO August 17, 2017 12:36PM

This is stupid. The statue is clearly being taken down so that it may be repurposed into a road for modern confederates to drive on. The south will ride again! n/t

Stevers August 17, 2017 07:28AM

The ignorance of a certain, trollish subset of this community has essentially ruined any desire to interact with any of you. Gabe, delete this motherfucker.

Sam August 16, 2017 04:07PM

Naw, man..

Jib August 17, 2017 12:58AM

*tips fedora* (n/t)

Rhyaldrin August 17, 2017 01:03AM

Hello, Sam

Kstatida August 16, 2017 09:46PM

You gotta drop me a line dude. C'mon. (n/t)

Frosty August 16, 2017 07:12PM

It's no use.

MiyagiYojimbo August 16, 2017 09:10PM

It's never any use, and I am disappointed with how this forum has handled Sam posting.

Stevers August 17, 2017 07:26AM

I love your anteater. nt

Flipside Oreo August 17, 2017 09:33AM

I was going to correct your spelling

Kstatida August 16, 2017 09:46PM

Are you sure you aren't the common denominator?

jalim August 16, 2017 04:20PM

Didn't you already rage quit all the forums like months ago?

Rhyaldrin August 16, 2017 04:19PM

And so the chaos spreads.

Flipside Oreo August 16, 2017 01:02PM

Take this advice. (n/t)

MiyagiYojimbo August 16, 2017 05:23PM

Meanwhile in Europe..

istirith August 16, 2017 03:41AM

That much is true

Kstatida August 16, 2017 10:44AM

any specific info in there that was relevant? nt

Flipside Oreo August 16, 2017 01:16PM

The second book

Kstatida August 16, 2017 09:44PM

Ah, sounds interesting

Flipside Oreo August 17, 2017 12:45AM

For sure.

istirith August 16, 2017 12:25PM

Leftists are not humans.

Rhyaldrin August 15, 2017 09:04PM

Pinochet wasn't right, he was lying. You can tell because his nose grows every time he tells a lie. This is a classic old tale, have you never heard of it? Look up Disney's Pinochet. Spoiler: Gestapo is the best char in the story n/t

Stevers August 17, 2017 07:30AM

You are a fucking idiot.

kadsuane August 16, 2017 11:44AM

you better go practice the fly spell in the cuck guild.

Rhyaldrin August 16, 2017 12:01PM

Ooooh internet tough guy over here.

kadsuane August 17, 2017 04:17AM

You're such a k-b. (n/t)

Rhyaldrin August 17, 2017 02:24PM

Keep egging him on. I want to see him try to fly a helicopter. :) (n/t)

Frosty August 17, 2017 11:36AM

Believe it or not, I know how to fly one.

Matrik August 17, 2017 12:14PM

Have you seen this halfling? Last seen flying over Mogadishu. nt

istirith August 17, 2017 09:00PM

Believe it or not, I believe you. (n/t)

Frosty August 17, 2017 03:12PM

I don't. Matrik thinks he can do anything and everything better than everyone. n/t

Stevers August 17, 2017 08:00PM

Not my fault your mechanic broke it. (n/t)

Matrik August 18, 2017 05:01AM

You're fucking savage dude. ;) (n/t)

Frosty August 16, 2017 02:08PM

That video made me sick.

Matrik August 15, 2017 11:47AM

He's not much of a fighting man if he can't even handle a couple of fat turds and man-girls. n/t

Stevers August 17, 2017 07:32AM

Re: That video made me sick.

Jib August 15, 2017 08:19PM

The losers in the American civil war were not patriots. Literally the opposite. (n/t)

Jib August 15, 2017 07:42AM

That definition makes them literally patriots.

Matrik August 15, 2017 11:43AM

It really does suck that so much of the best and brightest and bravest of the losing side were lost in the war.

Jib August 15, 2017 08:17PM

Yeah, exactly what I'm talking about :) (n/t)

Kstatida August 15, 2017 08:35AM

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