And by 'normal circumstances' I mean a world where growth is normal and everywhere is prosperous. Normally investors would seek yield in a high (real) growth environment.
We're not in normal. Right now capital preservation is driving capital flows. That means major institutions and wealthy people are more worried getting their investment capital back (even if they eat a small
tl;dr summary: The USD will strengthen. Recession in the US approaching over 90% within the next 12 months. Lots of rambling info within.
Multiple indicators are already signaling that we're heading into one. When it hits the US properly it is hard to say*. Maybe 2-3 years at most? To be quite frank though, based on various events and the fact that most economic data goes through a pub
The Norwegian Govt. Pension Fund Global just announced they would be purchasing another round of equities. This is part of the problem right now.. there is a flight to safety- a flight to the core and while the Trump admin have done a very good job of talking the USD down (probably in conjunction with Yellen at the Fed. Reserve), there is only so much they can stave off fundamental capital flow
A large amount of foreign debt is USD denominated*, particularly in EMs , and there are still a number of pegs which are prone to break if the USD continues to strengthen. You're right that trade balances are an equilibrium and a rapid change in the USD strength as an index would destroy global trade and investment flows, however, the strengthening USD trend (which started in 2014 and looks
The reverse will likely happen. The USD will strengthen to the point that it breaks the back of the global economy, for a number of reasons. It will also kill US exports though and force currency regime change. After that (possibly on the other side of 2030) your scenario will play out.
If the USD collapsed in value tomorrow, all of the Emerging Market economic ministers and various other
Rather than FDI etc. You're talking about the real economy and that has as much (or more) to do with physics than economics. The good economic models are compatible with physics models, but physics rules the roost where trade/production is concerned...
And that's part of the reason why globalism cannot be demolished without consequences and why (to an extent) economic growth and gl
In terms of macroeconomics, it is quite likely the US Dollar will need to cease being the global reserve currency. This isn't clear right now, but by 2020 it should be clearer. Strong currencies kill exports.
Not such an issue if international trade halts and you turn inward and keep the economy regional, but you cannot have it both ways. You can't have a currency that is used by
Blowing up globalism and getting production back from China into the US isn't likely to help Americans much without a corresponding cut in taxation. I see that as unlikely right now. There is a reason why things were outsourced initially and you basically have to have a combination of strong education/trade-focused learning (which Trump was looking at emulating using Germany's educati
But I think they are cuing up a big counter-offensive. It's obvious there is a high level power game right now. You have things like the US debt ceiling and so on looming. I'd really be surprised if there isn't a counter-offensive soon. Don't forget, Trump did the exact same thing with the presidency- dipped his toes in, got shit on by Obama and the Democrats in 2012, pati
Bannon was ourguy. Hope this is a tactical move, but can't help but think that a shadow govt. is slowly isolating Trump.
Edit: and when I say tactical, Bannon could potentially do more damage on the outside than on the inside. No longer muzzled by the leash of being an insider in government.
Just working the system for some primo beverages. Ever had to live without Starbucks? You get real good at exploiting the oppressive capitalistic system when your daily coffee fix becomes impaired.
I read that in Das Kapital.
Now I know what you're thinking guys... "That's a great idea!! But isn't it a bit of a lofty goal? I mean- I'm all for tearing down Confederate statues but Mount Rushmore isn't a statue, and it's only barely Confederate!"
Well, to all of those naysayers (you know who you are), I would respond- Rome wasn't sacked in a day!
Anyway, I'm of
brinksmanship might tip someone's hand within the DRPK? Or possibly China. I pretty much agree with you and Boris on this though on the geopolitical perspective. We'll find out soon anyway, no way that he continues on this way if he is legitimately irrational.
This is the same guy who murdered his brother, shot two officials at point blank range with an anti-aircraft cannon and purportedly has teams snatching and expatriating westerners into DRPK black sites. Honestly though, one thing I will say, I am not certain I trust the media reports in general on the matter.
But honestly, what if he is legitimately mad?
Household discretionary income has been devastated by Obamacare and US retail sales have tanked as a result. This is being chalked up to Amazon and online retail, but if you dig through the numbers you'll see it's not the case. So nice work I guess? At least he makes good oven fries.
They are rattling sabers with Japan, S. Korea and a bunch of US allies. The stupidity of the move could end up escalating into full blown major conflict for the reasons I've described above- and honestly, maybe that's the point. Not exactly likely that NK is a bastion of good economic fortune. There was a time where Trump was extending him an olive branch..
Generally in this por
Based on their past frame of reference- there hasn't been a major global war in a long time, only proxy wars and regional conflicts. The reason why risk of global conflict is so high right now, is that politicians everywhere need a distraction to misdirect from the public sector (major reason for WW2 also). NK is just especially dangerous because their leadership, increasingly, has not fou
His government contains more leaks from liberal staff and insiders than the last 30 years of governments combined. He's loathed by Congress across the board too. If you want evidence of this, look no further than McCain sabotaging the repeal vote, and the reaction. Do you believe if that had been Romney or Bush, that the vote would have had anything short of consensus across the Republican
Believe me. People were quite angry.
Legally the US might be able to impose sanctions, the EU probably won't follow suit and if they do it will be token sanctions, but right now Europe is in a really weak position economically. The sanctions have only exacerbated this.
On the Euro, I don't know about that. I know it was configured primarily to benefit Germany. That seems to be
The Russian sanctions before (the ones in 2014) really blew back on Europe. At that stage I think your hypothesis would probably be right. At this stage European relations with the US have cooled quite substantially. One example is the German intelligence agencies telling the American intelligence agencies that they do not need any help intelligence-wise with their elections recently. This is
1. Wrong about the Chinese being currency manipulators. If this isn't a political narrative/rhetoric for another purpose, it's incorrect.
2. Might regret taking responsibility for the S&P500 rising. Not sure what the end game here is. He's pretty good on market timing though based on previous tweets going back to 2010, so maybe I'm wrong.
3. Arguably pretty weak in te