You're reaching a lot of impressive conclusions. Unfortunately, I'm not sure any of them are true.
I'd argue more in depth, but that takes a lot of effort. So I'll just point out a few things.
In your post you assumed that 33% of active QHCF accounts would be logged in at peak times. Where does that number come from? Your ass? How can you assume it'd be remotely that high? Keep in mind that there is a significant percentage of QHCF accounts that simply don't play CF anymore. And there's dozens upon dozens that are from Europe, Russia and Australia. Their "peak" times are going to be different. Not to mention that some people will simply have other things to do, only play weekdays/from work, are working, out of town, whatever.. and not playing CF. One-third is a huge percentage to assume that such a diverse group will be logged in simultaneously.
All "in-game" statistics are suspect. They come from a highly biased source and are thus not to be trusted. If you want a true count, create a character that can see hidden/invis. Then maybe add a few more to the count for camo/cham/duo'd types. Overall, that count will be something you can rely on. Relying on a source which has every reason in the book to pump up their numbers is just retarded.