For Physics, Re: Gun ownership and social cost.

January 29, 2013 07:37PM
I did a little bit of digging around on the internet and haven't had much time to accumulate a lot of data. A few points of note:

Sub-conclusion 1: 15.8% of total homicides (1756 approximately) by firearm can be attributed to gang violence across the entire of the US. Maybe this percentage is not as high as some people on the pro-gun side of the debate would have liked but either way, that is quite a big proportion given the relative number of people in gangs compared to the entire population. According to your statistics compiled by the CDC, most gun related deaths fall between the ages of 16-29, more males kill than females, and by far the highest homicide rates fall within the Black and Hispanic demographics, although this could be attributed to a heap of socio-economic factors and gang-related violence (the two are likely strongly correlated anyway), as opposed to racial motivations.

Sub-conclusion 2: The United States has higher rates of deaths, including homicide, than many European neighbours, even when accounting for the number of guns proportionate to the population. Accidental deaths are minimal and comparable in most cases between the US and other countries. By far the biggest cause of death in the US and European countries is firearm death by suicide. It is worth noting that these deaths would likely not be averted in the absence of firearms. Firearms are likely to be a preferred method for suicide due to effectiveness. When looking beyond Europe and N. America, particularly at Latin America, many countries have disproportionately high numbers of firearm deaths and much higher rates of firearm related homicide despite reporting significantly lower numbers of gun ownership per capita. (I am also severely skeptical if a firearm ban would even be able to be enforced in the US, a country with close to a 1:1 gun to person ratio, and a third of all households owning at least one firearm.)

It is plausible that the disparities between the US and European nations lies in socio-economic factors and/or regulatory practices of the US.


Sub-conclusion 3: Violent crime data could not be sourced easily for other nations owing to cross-comparison difficulties. This point remains inconclusive.

Sub-conclusion 4: Federal Tax revenues and license fees do not cover the costs quoted by the New York Times article. When accounting for administrative fees within the government, even less tax-payer money would make it to the hospitals. It is worth noting that the negative social costs associated with the gun industry are easily pinpointed, whereas positive social benefits are much harder to pin down. There may be scope for federal tax hikes on guns depending on how price elastic the consumer demand within the industry is, in fact taxation may be a more effective tool than a blanket ban of firearms.

Having reviewed the data, I'm now sort of teetering between both sides on the issue. I still need to do a little more research in some areas to make up my mind.

And the data below:

On Rade's point regarding gang-related firearm homicides:
Quote

The total number of gang homicides reported by respondents in the NYGS sample averaged nearly 2,000 annually from 2006 to 2010. During the same time period, the FBI estimated, on average, more than 16,000 homicides across the United States (www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10tbl01.xls). These estimates suggest that gang-related homicides typically accounted for around 12 percent of all homicides annually.
[www.nationalgangcenter.gov]

Gang-related homicides show an increased use of firearms as opposed to non-gang. Firearms were prevalent in over 90% of the gang-related incidents in the cities for which detailed analysis was carried out. Non-gang was around the 60% region. (See: Table 2, in link.)

[www.cdc.gov]

So taking an estimate, supposing that around 12% of all homicides in the US are gang-related, and (to be conservative) 90% of those gang-related homicides are carried out using a firearm, we have approximately 10.8% of all homicides committed in 2008 are gang-related and committed by firearm.

There were 774000 estimated total gang-members in the US in 2008 according to statistics in the first link. (10.8% of the total homicides in 2008 [according to your previous link] is 1756 homicides, meaning the homicide rate per 100,000 people is 226.9 homicides amongst gang-affiliated individuals compared with 3.6 per 100,000 individuals amongst the regular population.)

On NbM/Batman's points regarding various:

Firearm related deaths by country
Taken from: [en.wikipedia.org]
And:
[en.wikipedia.org]

- In 2011, the US displayed 10.2 total firearm deaths per 100,000 individuals. Of this rate of 10.2 per 100,000, 3.6 was homicide, 6.3 was suicide and 0.2 was unintentional. The remaining 0.1 was undefined. The US has the highest gun ownership per capita in the world at 88 firearms owned per 100 individuals.
- Next is Yemen; there is no data on homicides in this region.
- Switzerland is third at 45.7 guns per 100 individuals and shows a 3.84 total firearm deaths per 100,000 individuals, of which 0.52 are homicide, 3.15 are suicide and 0.1 are accidental deaths.
- Finland is fourth and demonstrates similar figures to Switzerland, 45.3 guns per 100 individuals. 3.64 deaths per 100,000 individuals, 0.26 are homicide, 3.34 are suicide and 0.2 accidental deaths.
- Serbia is fifth showing comparable, but slightly elevated figures to Switzerland despite lower gun ownership.
- Some countries like El Salvador which has only 5.8 guns per 100 individuals shows massive homicide rates at 50.36 gun related deaths per 100,000, all reported as homicide.

My input: The economic toll of firearm related violence

Tax rate on firearms sales 10% on pistols and revolvers, 11% on ammunition and other firearms [www.ttb.gov] (I thought it would be higher.)

Other gun related statistics: [www.statisticbrain.com]



Edited 12 time(s). Last edit at 01/29/2013 08:16PM by istirith.
Subject Author Posted

For Physics, Re: Gun ownership and social cost.

istirith January 29, 2013 07:37PM

PS: On behalf of all British people..

istirith January 31, 2013 03:12PM

Related Article

vortexmagus January 31, 2013 11:53AM

ahuehue

Matrik January 31, 2013 12:11PM

its hard to find good data

Quas January 30, 2013 04:07AM

You have no idea.

istirith January 30, 2013 06:19AM

but, but, we love our confirmation bias! (n/t)

Quixotic January 30, 2013 07:08AM

The government is just responding to pop culture

Rade January 30, 2013 04:40AM

This is something deadly serious. I urge all people to consider what "zombie apocalypse" training is really about.

Pro January 30, 2013 05:02AM

Occam's razor, civil unrest doesn't have to be this existential thing for the U.S.

Rade January 30, 2013 07:47AM

Stop being crazy. This is a discussion about a CDC webpage

wrathpuppet January 30, 2013 05:15AM

Keep thinking that's what it's only about.

Pro January 30, 2013 05:17AM

This fails every application of logic.

wrathpuppet January 30, 2013 05:25AM

It fails no application of logic as you say.

Pro January 30, 2013 05:33AM

We're not even close to revolution.

wrathpuppet January 30, 2013 05:40AM

Revolution vs Civil unrest

Quixotic January 30, 2013 06:21AM

I think that there is something up ahead.

istirith January 30, 2013 04:23PM

The rule of thumb is we are 9 meals away from riots. (n/t)

Pro January 30, 2013 06:29AM

Just be glad that you're not living in Dubai..

istirith January 30, 2013 04:28PM

Who said anything about a revolutiuon? I didn't. (n/t)

Pro January 30, 2013 06:10AM

You implied it. Don't be dishonest. (n/t)

wrathpuppet January 30, 2013 06:14AM

You just asked Pro not to be dishonest...

NbM(VIP) January 30, 2013 06:40AM

In no way did I imply it. (Edited)

Pro January 30, 2013 06:21AM

I don't think the zombie stuff is a waste

Quas January 30, 2013 04:46AM

I think that's what you keep failing to see from the opposite side

Rade January 30, 2013 07:43AM

where the problem lies

Quas January 31, 2013 06:24AM

Indeed it is where the problem lies.

Batman January 31, 2013 06:46AM

Re: where the problem lies

Matrik January 31, 2013 06:28AM

Re: where the problem lies

Quas January 31, 2013 06:34AM

So, basically you are paranoid. (n/t)

Matrik January 31, 2013 07:03AM

yes, but really only of people with guns, other weapons don't bother me (n/t)

Quas January 31, 2013 07:06AM

I can see how you would want people disarmed then. I'm sorry you have to live in fear.

Matrik January 31, 2013 07:07AM

I would also point out that anyone who feels ths need to carry a gun is also paranoid, do you feel sorry for them too? (n/t)

Quas January 31, 2013 07:21AM

Do you feel that people who feel the need to protect their right to vote in fair democratic elections are paranoid? nt

Rade February 02, 2013 07:11AM

I don't think that's true, so no I don't feel sorry for them. (n/t)

Matrik January 31, 2013 07:25AM

Isn't living in fear one of the primary motives for gun ownership in the first place? (n/t)

wrathpuppet January 31, 2013 07:12AM

That, or enjoyment, etc.

Batman January 31, 2013 07:20AM

I disagree. I think fear is at the root of all of those things.

wrathpuppet January 31, 2013 07:26AM

I guess I just don't like the definition of fear being so broadly applicable since then it's not exactly distinguishable from "action".

Batman January 31, 2013 07:30AM

Again, I disagree.

wrathpuppet January 31, 2013 07:35AM

But you get +150 points for tackling a train!

Batman January 31, 2013 07:56AM

This is a top notch post. (n/t)

wrathpuppet January 31, 2013 08:38AM

the path

Matrik January 31, 2013 08:01AM

For the record:

Matrik January 31, 2013 07:37AM

It felt like you were. (n/t)

wrathpuppet January 31, 2013 07:44AM

Are you paranoid that I was?

Matrik January 31, 2013 07:47AM

Bad subject line. Changed.

Matrik January 31, 2013 07:29AM

I think we're just going to disagree on this. (n/t)

wrathpuppet January 31, 2013 07:30AM

Probably. My heart is not in it to try very hard. (n/t)

Matrik January 31, 2013 07:31AM

this is more or less correct

Quas January 31, 2013 07:24AM

I'm going to point out here...txt

wrathpuppet January 31, 2013 07:29AM

lolled

Batman January 31, 2013 07:33AM

It comes down to cost/benefit.

wrathpuppet January 31, 2013 07:42AM

But do those THOUSANDS of deaths per year really balance that out?

Batman January 31, 2013 07:57AM

Of course, because there would be Millions less people without vehicles

Quas January 31, 2013 09:18AM

So make vehicles only commercial, no private ownership allowed. That way we can prevent more deaths.

Batman January 31, 2013 09:44AM

this is not a good comparison

Quas January 31, 2013 09:57AM

You could take public transportation, walk, or ride - just like you said about owning a gun - There are alternatives .Maybe not as convenient, but there are. NT

Batman January 31, 2013 09:59AM

The fall off to the next best alternative is substantially greater for transportation then weapons

Quas January 31, 2013 10:04AM

I said the same thing in response to relying on cops everywhere.

Batman January 31, 2013 10:06AM

Comes down (right or wrong) to popular opinion.

wrathpuppet January 31, 2013 08:43AM

Not for me. (n/t)

Matrik January 31, 2013 07:14AM

Clearly not for everyone...

wrathpuppet January 31, 2013 07:19AM

I think self-defense can be *A* reason without being THE reason.

Matrik January 31, 2013 07:58AM

Completely agree with this zombie nonsense.

ghuljun_thul January 30, 2013 04:21AM

Yeah. I bet you liked zombies before they were cool huh? (n/t)

Matrik January 30, 2013 06:16AM

Hey, suck it up. I had to live through a vampire trend. (n/t)

Pro January 30, 2013 04:38AM

www.fbi.gov (n/t)

Pro January 30, 2013 04:11AM



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